Vermont is not a bubble.

New data from the July 2019 Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Update illustrates just how much Vermont's Gross Domestic Product (the monetary measure of the total of goods produced and services provided) depends on external markets. Exports represent a larger percentage of our GDP than any other New England state (8.7%), and we are well above the national average (8.1%).

Asia represents our largest export market outside of North America. Its 40.3% market share vastly overshadows that of Europe, South/Central America, Africa, and Australia. What does this mean? US relations with China, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and the EU pose a risk to Vermont's economic expansion. While some of this threat was lessened by a new NAFTA (a trade agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States) that didn't see significant change over prior iterations, a prolonged and escalated trade war with China and/or Japan could have a tangible impact here at home.  

Census Bureau data shows that our 2018 top-10 world exports were:

1. Integrated circuits, processors/controllers: $1.1 billion, 37.6% of total exports
2. Integrated circuits, excluding processors/controllers: $538 million, 18.4% of total exports
3. General physical exercise equipment: $79 million, or 2.7% of total exports
4. Integrated circuits, amplifiers: $61 million, 2.1% of total exports
5. Aircraft including engines and parts: $57 million, or 2% of total exports
6. Paper, paperboard: $44 million, 1.5% of total exports
7. Machinery for working with rubber or plastics: $43 million, 1.5% of total exports
8. Machinery using optical radiation measurement technology: $37 million, or 1.3% of total exports
9. Chemicals used in electronics: $28 million, 1% of total exports
10. Miscellaneous plastics: $24 million, 0.8% of total exports

Also according to Census Bureau data, our top-10 export markets for 2018 were:

1. Canada, 43.5%
2. Hong Kong, 9%
3. Taiwan, 6.7%
4. The Koreas, 6.4%
5. China, 5.8%
6. Malaysia, 5.3%
7. United Kingdom, 3%
8. Germany, 2.6%
9. Netherlands, 2.3%
10. France, 1.8%

https://ljfo.vermont.gov/assets/Meetings/Joint-Fiscal-Committee/2019-07-29/112c9a4cc9/Kavet-Revenue-Commentary-0719-Final.pdf

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/vt.html