2025/26 Research Priorities

Every year, Campaign for Vermont sets a research agenda for when the legislature is out of session. These are topics that we want to focus on in the spirit of bringing forward new information and recommendations for our state's policymakers. This work might result in new research papers, new position statements, new legislation, or just furthering our own understanding of an issue.

1. Education: quantify cost savings for the CFV education proposal. DONE! See Finding Savings Through Shared Services in Vermont Schools 
   1. In March, we released a proposal for education transformation which built on the learnings from Act 46 and recognized Vermonter's preference towards local control of schools.
   2. In the midst of debates over how to arrest rising education costs, it would be helpful to put numbers behind our proposal. We know it will save money, but how much? A solid estimate would be allow it to be more easily compared to other proposals.
   3. Research questions:
      1. What kind of cost-savings could be gained by merging into 15 Supervisory Unions while leaving school districts largely untouched?
      2. How much savings could be had by pushing various services up to the SU Level?
      3. What kind of cost or utilization benefits might we see by providing Career and Technical Education (CTE) through SUs?
      4. What kind of expansion in curriculum or services might we expect to see by utilizing SUs as shared service providers for districts?
         
         
2. Affordable Housing: examine utilizing modular/manufactured units to reduce costs for state-sponsored affordable housing projects.
   1. The current cost of construction for "affordable" housing units in the state is over $500/sq ft. This is not sustainable if we are trying to meet our demand for housing.
   2. The state's target is 7000 units of housing per year for the next 25 years. Currently we are building 2500 per year.
   3. State spending on housing was $126.7M in FY2024 and produced ~1900 units of housing. We are unlikely to see significant investment growth due to revenue constraints.
   4. Research questions:
      1. What makes cost of construction for the state's affordable housing projects so expensive?
      2. What would the estimated cost per square foot be for prefab modular housing at scale in Vermont?
      3. What is the viability of in-state manufacturing of modular housing?
      4. What state or local policies might need to change to allow for at-scale construction?
         
         
3. Healthcare: finish previous work around hospital price transparency on identify cost drivers transparency.
   1. We began this work in 2022 looking at hospital pricing lists to help us understand the costs to patients and the cost/performance differences between hospitals.
   2. Research questions:
      1. What areas of billing are Vermont hospitals out of step with one-another and the nation as a whole?
      2. Do specific hospitals charge more across the board than others?
      3. If so, how much more and in what areas?
      4. What can regulators, policymakers, and consumers do to reduce health care costs in the state?
         
         
4. Education: Research the cost-drivers in the current education funding formula to understand pitfalls to avoid in future legislation.
   1. We know that the current funding formula is creating a tragedy of the commons situation that incentivizes high spending. If a district doesn't keep up with statewide spending increases, they risk their tax rates increasing with no commiserate increase in services. But the specific factors that have influenced this behavior have not been documented or well understood.
   2. Research questions:
      1. What towns consistently vote for the largest spending increases? Can we identify why?
      2. Is there a correlation between education spending and median housing prices in an area?
      3. Is there a correlation between education spending and median salaries in an area?
      4. Is there a correlation between education spending and the percentage of renters in an area?
      5. Is there a correlation between teacher salaries and median salaries in an area?
         
      6. What influence does English Language Learners or special education have? Can you control for those factors?
      7. Are there other factors, not previously considered, that influence a town's education spending decisions?
         
         
5. Water Quality: understand what we are getting for the current level of spending and whether or not things are improving.
   1. We believe this may be the second-largest state liability after pensions. The EPA is responsible for water quality in the United States, but has allowed states to manage it in many instance. However, due to lack of progress, the EPA has threatened multiple times to take over water quality oversight in the state. The state will of course still be on the hook for paying for cleanup efforts and the solutions that the EPA enforces are likely to be many times more expensive than the ones we are pursuing today.
   2. There are also inter-agency tensions within state government where the Agency of Natural Resources, the Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Agency of Agriculture all have a part to play but are in some instances at odds with each other.
   3. Additionally, there is an economic tourism impact from declining water quality. Travel guides are starting to tell visitors to avoid Lake Champlain. The state brings in $4 billion in tourism revenue annually (about 10% of our GDP).
   4. Research questions:
      
      1. What is the total potential liability to the state?
      2. Where is the current funding going?
      3. What KPI's are in place that show changes over time?
      4. Are we trending in the right direction?
      5. What is the risk that the EPA takes over?
      6. What is the potential economic and health opportunity for the state?

These are all important topics that will move state policy forward in ways that help everyday Vermonters. But, here's the bottom line, we need your help. We need folks to chip in to support this work. We tackle these projects on a first-in-first-out basis. Due to capacity constraints, we are unlikely to get to all of these this year. That's where you come in. Your financial support can help us to increase capacity and take on more of this research before legislators return to Montpelier in January.

P.S. if you don't have the financial means to support these projects, you can also volunteer your time to help us do some of the legwork to support these efforts.