February Newsletter: Vermont's Demographic Crisis Accelerates

I think we all are aware that they are several large funding gaps that need to be filled this year and a lot of issues that need to be addressed like a housing shortage, cost of living, health care, the economy, education crisis (on several levels), etc. We are faced with some touch decisions this year. There is perhaps another issue, a more fundamental one, that looms above them all...

Vermont is losing residents at the fastest rate in the nation, a trend that is accelerating. New U.S. Census estimates reveal a 0.29% population decline between July 2024 and July 2025, the steepest percentage drop of any state. Our little green mountain state lost more than 1,800 residents during that 12-month period, driven by a troubling combination: deaths outpacing births and more people leaving than arriving.

The pandemic bump is over. While Vermont netted roughly 6,700 new residents from other states during the COVID-era migration wave, that momentum has fully reversed. For two consecutive years, more people have moved out of Vermont than moved in, resulting a net loss of over 700 residents in the most recent year, preceded by a loss of more than 550 the year before.

Vermont stands alone in this troubling distinction. It is one of only five states losing population, alongside West Virginia, New Mexico, Hawaii, and California. But Vermont is the only state simultaneously experiencing both natural population decline and negative domestic migration. Deaths have outpaced births every year since 2016, with the gap between 2020 and 2023 reaching 5,191 more deaths than births.

The workforce consequences are stark. Vermont's labor force dropped below 350,000 for the first time in 29 months, and the state ranks last nationally for working-age residents (25-44) as a share of its population. Retired UVM economist Art Woolf put it bluntly: "It doesn't surprise me that Vermont's population did not grow. It surprises me that we were that bad."

Without a course correction, the math is disconcerting. Fewer working-age residents mean a smaller tax base, which constrains investment, which limits housing development, which prevents the very in-migration needed to reverse the decline. As Kevin Chu of the Vermont Futures Project warns: "The affordability challenges of Vermont will be exacerbated if we continue on this trend."

Campaign for Vermont will continue monitoring legislative responses to this crisis as they move through the General Assembly and engage as necessary. Have questions or concerns? Please reach out.

Executive Director

I am sure many of you may be aware that the Board of Directors has named Ben Kinsley as its Executive Director, a position he held for a few years prior to 2017. Ben agreed back in December 2024 to return to the position on a temporary basis while we advertised for the position. This summer, Ben officially let us know he was interested in the position which made the Board’s decision quite easy. His domain knowledge of current affairs and public policy areas such as education, housing, energy and workforce development, compliment the Board’s vision for CFV.

The Board re-instituted the Executive Director position after a few year hiatus because of the increasing recognition of CFV’s impact on public policy in Vermont and the demand for direct input from CFV on a wider range of topics under the Golden Dome. In short, we needed someone who could react quickly and directly to fast-moving conversations in Montpelier.

CFV Advisory Council

In 2024 the Board created an ‘Advisory Council' comprised of highly professional experts in various areas of public policy. This move has proven to be very successful in helping the Board and the Executive Director to craft meaningful policy recommendations to put before Legislators. Council members have written commentaries to support the work of the organization, help to prep for legislative testimony, and provide invaluable comments and recommendations based on their professional experiences and education. Today, there are six members on the Advisory Council who work exceptionally well together, and we will continue to add smart and thoughtful individuals. 

It is an honor and great pleasure to serve with our newly appointed Executive Director and members of the Advisory Council.

On behalf of Vermonters,

Pat McDonald
Campaign for Vermont

Join the Campaign

 

		Senate Education Testimony We testified in the Senate Education Committee about our education reform proposal that is could generate $300 million in possible savings through shared services in Vermont schools. Watch
Bigger Must be Better, Right? Last month we sent a letter to the House Education Committee as they grappled with what to do about education reform. We urged them to follow the data and research on cost-savings in rural education systems. Read Letter
		Reform, Really? A former Tax Commissioner highlights how seniors are getting squeezed by rising education costs. Initial projections anticipate doubled digit property tax increases AGAIN this year, while social security payments are only expected to increase 2.8%. Read Commentary
New Tools for Housing Production (H.775) H.775 is an innovative housing bill designed to stimulate affordable development in rural Vermont through financial incentives, pilot programs, and administrative reforms. The legislation introduces tax stabilization for some communities, authorizes municipalities to issue revenue bonds backed by special assessments, and leverages the State Treasurer’s credit facility to fund mobile home infrastructure and off-site modular home construction. Read our Overview & Analysis
		School Spending Cap (S.220) S.220, seeks to curb the growth of property taxes by placing temporary limits on school district budget increases. The catch? The limits might be so high that they don't actually constrain spending growth... Read our Overview & Analysis
Legislative Updates If you're not subscribed already, you should be. Our weekly legislative updates give provide Montpelier insights you can't get anywhere else. Sign Up

 

News Worth Reading:

Our top picks of local must-read news this month.

1. Vermont population declines again - Vermont Public
2. Property tax pressure fuels push for state-imposed school spending caps - Vermont Public
3. Vermont Lawmakers Spent Four Years and $1.7 Million to Realize the Affordable Heat Act Was Never Affordable - Compass Vermont
4. Proposed Vermont Budget Could Lead to a 6 Percent Tax Hike - Seven Days
5. Facing 'precarious' future, Vermont State Ethics Commission seeks financial lifeline from lawmakers - Vermont Public
6. Vermont develops catalog of prevetted home designs for faster building - Vermont Public
7. Equity-Rich Vermont: Why Massive Homeowner Wealth Is Fueling a Housing and Workforce Crisis - Compass Vermont
8. Tax committee chair nixes Trump private school tuition credit - Vermont Daily Chronicle
9. Bill Would Require AI Disclaimer on Deceptive Campaign Ads - Seven Days
10. Vermont lawmakers consider moving to 2-year car inspections - Vermont Public

Recently Completed Research & Policy Proposals:

• Wealth Migration Report - Published December 11, 2024
• Education Spending & Outcomes Report - Published December 30, 2024
• A Pathway to Viable Education Reform - Published March 7, 2025
• Letter to Education Reform Conference Committee - Sent June 6, 2025
• Review of Yale Report on Effectiveness of Act 46 - Published July 22, 2025
• Letter to Act 73 Task Force - Sent August 12, 2025
• Finding Savings Through Shared Services in Vermont - Published November 10, 2025

Campaign for Vermont's mission is to advocate for public policy changes by reconnecting middle-class Vermonters to their government.